Aziya y'Uburasirazuba yahoraga ari ihuriro ry'uburemere mu gukora bateri ya lithium-ion, ariko muri Aziya y'Iburasirazuba ihuriro ry'ingufu zagiye buhoro buhoro zerekeza mu Bushinwa mu ntangiriro ya za 2000.Muri iki gihe, amasosiyete y’Abashinwa afite imyanya ikomeye mu rwego rwo gutanga lithium ku isi, haba mu majyepfo no mu majyepfo, bingana na 80% by’inganda zikoresha za batiri guhera mu 2021.1 Ikwirakwizwa rya elegitoroniki y’abaguzi nka terefone zigendanwa na mudasobwa zigendanwa byatumye ikoreshwa rya batiri ya lithium-ion mu myaka ya za 2000. , none muri za 2020 isi yose ihinduranya ibinyabiziga byamashanyarazi (EVs) ishyira umuyaga mumato ya bateri ya lithium-ion.Gusobanukirwa n’amasosiyete ya lithium yo mu Bushinwa rero ni ingenzi cyane kugirango dusobanukirwe nimbaraga ziteganijwe kwiyongera mugihe cyo kwakirwa na EV.
Ikigo cya Gravity cyimukiye mu Bushinwa
Ibintu byinshi byatsindiye igihembo cyitiriwe Nobel byatumye hacuruzwa ibicuruzwa bya batiri ya lithium, cyane cyane na Stanley Whittingham mu myaka ya za 1970 na John Goodenough mu 1980. Nubwo ibyo bigeragezo bitagenze neza rwose, byashizeho urufatiro rwa Dr. Akira Yoshino mu iterambere rikomeye mu 1985, ari naryo. yakoze bateri ya lithium-ion itekanye kandi ifite ubucuruzi.Kuva aho, Ubuyapani bwagize amaguru mu marushanwa ya mbere yo kugurisha bateri ya lithium kandi kuzamuka kwa Koreya y'Epfo byatumye Aziya y'Uburasirazuba iba ihuriro ry'inganda.
Kugeza mu mwaka wa 2015, Ubushinwa bwarenze Koreya y'Epfo n'Ubuyapani kugira ngo bibe byohereza ibicuruzwa byinshi mu mahanga muri litiro-ion.Inyuma y'uku kuzamuka kwari uguhuza imbaraga za politiki no kwihangira imirimo.Ibigo bibiri ugereranije bikiri bito, BYD na Contemporary Amperex Technology Company Limited (CATL), byahindutse inzira none bigera kuri 70% byubushobozi bwa batiri mubushinwa.2
Mu 1999, injeniyeri witwa Robin Zeng yafashije mu gushinga Amperex Technology Limited (ATL), turbo yazamuye iterambere ryayo mu 2003 isezerana na Apple yo gukora bateri ya iPod.Muri 2011, ibikorwa bya batiri ya EV ya ATL byahinduwe muri Contemporary Amperex Technology Company Limited (CATL).Mu gice cya mbere cya 2022, CATL yatwaye 34.8% ku isoko rya batiri ya EV ku isi.3
Mu 1995, umuhanga mu by'imiti witwa Wang Chuanfu yerekeje mu majyepfo yerekeza i Shenzhen, gushinga BYD.Intsinzi ya BYD hakiri kare mu nganda za lithium yavuye mu gukora bateri za terefone zigendanwa na elegitoroniki y’abaguzi ndetse no kugura BYD kugura umutungo utimukanwa muri Beijing Jeep Corporation byagaragaje ko urugendo rwatangiriye mu mwanya w’imodoka.Muri 2007, iterambere rya BYD ryarebye Berkshire Hathaway.Mu mpera z'igice cya mbere cy'umwaka wa 2022, BYD yarushije Tesla mu kugurisha EV ku isi hose, nubwo izanye na caveat ko BYD igurisha imashini zombi zivanze kandi zivanze, mu gihe Tesla yibanda gusa kuri EV gusa.
Kuzamuka kwa CATL na BYD byafashijwe ninkunga ya politiki.Mu 2004, bateri ya lithium yinjiye bwa mbere kuri gahunda y’abashinzwe gufata ibyemezo mu Bushinwa, hamwe na “Politiki yo guteza imbere inganda zitwara ibinyabiziga,” hanyuma nyuma ya 2009 na 2010 hashyirwaho inkunga ya bateri ndetse na sitasiyo zishyuza za EV.5 Mu myaka ya za 2010, sisitemu. y'inkunga yatanze amadorari 10,000 kugeza 20.000 ku binyabiziga by'amashanyarazi kandi byatangwaga gusa ku masosiyete akoranya imodoka mu Bushinwa hamwe na batiri ya lithium-ion yatanzwe n'abashoramari bemewe b'Abashinwa.6 Muri make, nubwo abakora bateri bo mu mahanga bari bemerewe guhangana ku isoko ry'Ubushinwa, inkunga yatanzwe Abashinwa bateri bateri bahitamo neza.
Kwemererwa kwa EV mu Bushinwa byatumye Litiyumu isabwa
Ubuyobozi bw'Ubushinwa mu kwinjiza EV ni bimwe mu bituma isi ikenera bateri ya lithium.Kugeza mu 2021, 13% by'imodoka zagurishijwe mu Bushinwa zari imvange cyangwa EV nziza kandi biteganijwe ko umubare uziyongera.Ubwiyongere bwa CATL na BYD mubihangange ku isi mu myaka 20 ishize bikubiyemo imbaraga za EV mu Bushinwa.
Mugihe EV igenda yiyongera, ibyifuzo biragenda biva kuri bateri ishingiye kuri nikel isubira kuri bateri ishingiye ku byuma (LFPs), yigeze guteshuka kubera kugira ingufu nke ugereranije (bityo rero intera nto).Byoroheye Ubushinwa, 90% yinganda za LFP ku isi hose zishingiye ku Bushinwa.7 Inzira yo kuva muri nikel ikajya muri LFP ntabwo iruhije, bityo Ubushinwa busanzwe buzatakaza igice cyabwo muri uyu mwanya, ariko Ubushinwa bugaragara nubwo bimeze bityo ihagaze neza kugirango igumane umwanya wiganje mumwanya wa LFP kumwanya uteganijwe.
Mu myaka yashize, BYD yagiye itera imbere hamwe na Batayo ya LFP Blade, izamura cyane umurongo wumutekano wa batiri.Hamwe nimiterere mishya ya bateri itunganya imikoreshereze yumwanya, BYD yatangaje ko Bateri ya Blade itatsinze ikizamini cyo kwinjira mumisumari gusa, ahubwo ubushyuhe bwubuso bwakomeje kuba bukonje bihagije.8 Usibye BYD ikoresha Bateri ya Blade kumashanyarazi yayo yose meza. ibinyabiziga, abatwara ibinyabiziga bikomeye nka Toyota na Tesla nabo barateganya cyangwa basanzwe bakoresha Bateri ya Blade, nubwo hamwe na Tesla hari ukutamenya neza uko bingana na 9,10,11
Hagati aho, muri Kamena 2022 CATL yashyize ahagaragara bateri yayo ya Qilin.Bitandukanye na Batiri Blade igamije guhindura amahame yumutekano, bateri ya Qilin yitandukanya cyane nubucucike bwingufu nigihe cyo kwishyuza.12 CATL ivuga ko bateri ishobora kwishyurwa 80% muminota 10 kandi ishobora gukoresha 72% yingufu za batiri mugutwara, byombi muri zo zigaragaza iterambere ryinshi mu ikoranabuhanga riri inyuma ya bateri.13,14
Amasosiyete yo mu Bushinwa afite umutekano mu myanya yo gutanga amasoko ku isi
Mugihe imirimo ya CATL na BYD mumwanya wa EV ari ngombwa, kuba Ubushinwa bugaragara mubice byo hejuru ntibigomba kwirengagizwa.Umugabane wintare mubikorwa bya lithium mbisi bibera muri Ositaraliya na Chili, bifite umugabane wisi ku isi 55% na 26%.Mugihe cyo hejuru, Ubushinwa bufite 14% byumusaruro wa lithiyumu ku isi.15 Nubwo bimeze bityo ariko, amasosiyete y abashinwa yashyizeho urwego rwo hejuru mumyaka yashize binyuze mu kugura imigabane mu birombe ku isi.
Kugura bikorwa bikorwa nabakora bateri ndetse nabacukuzi.Ingero nke zagaragaye mu 2021 zirimo Zijin Mining Group yaguze $ 765mn yo kugura Tres Quebradas na CATL yaguze miliyoni 298 zamadorali yo kugura Cauchari East na Pastos Grandes, zombi muri Arijantine.16 Muri Nyakanga 2022, Ganfeng Lithium yatangaje ko ifite gahunda yo kugura 100% bya Lithea Inc muri Arijantine ku giciro kigera kuri $ 962mn.17 Muri make, lithium ni kimwe mu bintu byingenzi byateye impinduramatwara y’icyatsi kandi amasosiyete y’Abashinwa yiteguye gushora imari muri lithium kugira ngo atazavaho.
Ububiko bw'ingufu bwerekana ibishoboka hagati y'ibibazo bidukikije
Ubushinwa bwiyemeje kugera ku myuka ihumanya ikirere mu 2030 no kutabogama kwa karubone mu 2060 ni bimwe mu bituma hakenerwa kwakirwa na EV.Ikindi kintu cyingenzi kigamije kugera ku ntego z’Ubushinwa zishobora kuvugururwa ni ikoreshwa ry’ikoranabuhanga ryo kubika ingufu.Ububiko bw'ingufu bujyana n'imishinga y'ingufu zishobora kuvugururwa niyo mpamvu rwose leta y'Ubushinwa itegeka 5-20% byo kubika ingufu zijyana n'imishinga y'ingufu zishobora kubaho.Ububiko ni ngombwa kugirango ugabanye kugabanuka, ni ukuvuga kugabanya nkana umusaruro w'amashanyarazi kubera kubura icyifuzo cyangwa ibibazo byo kohereza, kugeza byibuze.
Kubika hydro pompe nisoko nini yo kubika ingufu hamwe na 30.3 GW guhera muri 2020, icyakora hafi 89% byububiko butari hydro binyuze muri bateri ya lithium-ion.18,19 Mugihe hydro pompe ikwiriye kubikwa igihe kirekire, lithium batteri ikwiranye nububiko bwigihe gito, nibyinshi mubikenewe kubishobora kuvugururwa.
Kugeza ubu Ubushinwa bufite ingufu za 3.3GW gusa zo kubika ingufu za batiri ariko bufite gahunda yo kwaguka cyane.Izi gahunda zasobanuwe ku buryo burambuye muri gahunda y’imyaka 14 y’imyaka itanu yo kubika ingufu zashyizwe ahagaragara muri Werurwe 2022.20 Imwe mu ntego nyamukuru z’iyo gahunda ni ukugabanya igiciro cya buri gice cyo kubika ingufu ku kigero cya 30% muri 2025, bizemerera kubika guhinduka amahitamo yifuzwa mu bukungu.21 Byongeye kandi, muri gahunda, Grid ya Leta irizera ko izongera 100GW mu bubiko bwa batiri mu 2030 kugira ngo ishyigikire iterambere rishobora kuvugururwa, ibyo bikaba byatuma amato yo kubika batiri mu Bushinwa aba manini ku isi, nubwo yari imbere gusa. Amerika biteganijwe ko ifite 99GW.22
Umwanzuro
Amasosiyete yo mu Bushinwa yamaze guhindura urwego rwogutanga lithium ku isi, ariko akomeje guhanga udushya ku buryo bwihuse.Mu rwego rwo kwerekana akamaro kabo mu nganda, guhera ku ya 18 Kanama 2022, amasosiyete y’Abashinwa yari afite 41.2% by’urutonde rwa Solactive Lithium, akaba ari igipimo cyagenewe gukurikirana imikorere y’amasosiyete manini kandi menshi y’amazi akora mu bushakashatsi no / cyangwa ubucukuzi bwa lithium cyangwa umusaruro wa batiri ya lithium.23 Kwisi yose, ibiciro bya lithiyumu byiyongereyeho inshuro 13 hagati yitariki ya 1 Nyakanga 2020 na 1 Nyakanga 2022, bigera ku $ 67.050 kuri toni.24 Mu Bushinwa, igiciro cya karubone ya litiro kuri toni cyasimbutse. kuva ku 105000 kugeza kuri 475500 hagati y’itariki ya 20 Kanama 2021 na 19 Kanama 2022, ibyo bikaba byiyongereyeho 357% .25 Hamwe n’ibiciro bya karubone ya lisiyumu yazamutse hejuru cyangwa hafi y’amateka, amasosiyete y’Abashinwa asanzwe afite inyungu.
Iyi myumvire yibiciro bya lithiyumu yafashije imigabane yabashinwa na Amerika bijyanye na bateri na lithium iruta ihindagurika ryerekana isoko ryagutse mugihe isoko ryifashe nabi;hagati ya 18 Kanama 2021 na 18 Kanama 2022, MSCI Ubushinwa Imigabane Yose IMI Guhitamo Bateri Yagarutse 1.60% ugereranije na -22.28% kuri MSCI Ubushinwa Bwerekana Imigabane yose.26 Mubyukuri, bateri yubushinwa hamwe nibikoresho bya batiri byarushije ububiko bwa lithium kwisi, nka MSCI Ubushinwa Imigabane Yose IMI Guhitamo Bateri Yagarutse 1.60% ugereranije na Solactive Global Lithium Index yohereje kugaruka -0,74% mugihe kimwe.27
Twizera ko ibiciro bya lithiyumu bizakomeza kuzamuka mu myaka iri imbere, bikora nk'umutwe ushobora gukora ku bakora bateri.Dutegereje ariko,Gutezimbere muri batiri ya lithium tachnology irashobora gutuma EV iba ihendutse kandi ikora neza, nayo ishobora kongera lithium.Urebye uruhare rw'Ubushinwa mu gutanga lithium, turateganya ko amasosiyete y'Abashinwa azagira uruhare runini mu nganda za lithium mu myaka iri imbere.
Igihe cyo kohereza: Ugushyingo-05-2022