Ibiciro bya Litiyumu: Igiciro kizakomeza ikimasa cyacyo?.
Ibiciro bya lithium yo mu rwego rwa batiri byagabanutse mu byumweru bishize nubwo bikomeje kubura isoko ndetse no kugurisha ibinyabiziga bikoresha amashanyarazi ku isi.
Ibiciro bya buri cyumweru kuri lithium hydroxide (byibuze 56.5% ya LiOH2O ya batiri) yagereranije $ 75.000 kuri toni ($ 75 ku kilo) igiciro, ubwishingizi n’imizigo (CIF) ku ya 7 Nyakanga, ikamanuka ikava ku 81.500 ku ya 7 Gicurasi. Kuvunja (LME) hamwe n'ikigo gishinzwe kumenyekanisha ibiciro.
Ibiciro bya karubone ya Litiyumu mu Bushinwa byasubiye kuri CNY 475.500 / toni ($ 70,905.61) mu mpera za Kamena, bivuye muri rekodi yo hejuru ya CNY 500.000 muri Werurwe, nk'uko bitangazwa n’ubucuruzi bw’ubukungu Trading Economics.
Nyamara, ibiciro bya karubone ya lithium na hydroxide ya lithium - ibikoresho fatizo byo gukora bateri yimashanyarazi (EV) - biracyikuba kabiri kubiciro mu ntangiriro za Mutarama.
Kumanuka ni blip by'agateganyo gusa?Muri iki kiganiro turasuzuma amakuru yanyuma yisoko hamwe nibisabwa-bitanga amakuru agena ibiciro bya lithium.
Isoko rya Litiyumu
Litiyumu ntabwo ifite isoko ryigihe kizaza kuko ni isoko ryicyuma gito ugereranije nubucuruzi.Nyamara, ibikomoka ku isoko isoko rya CME Group rifite lithium hydroxide ejo hazaza, ikoresha igiciro cya hydroxide ya lithium yatangajwe na Fastmarkets.
Muri 2019, LME ku bufatanye na Fastmarkets yatangije igiciro cyerekanwe hashingiwe ku cyerekezo cy’ubucuruzi buri cyumweru ku bucuruzi bwa CIF Ubushinwa, Ubuyapani na Koreya.
Ubushinwa, Ubuyapani na Koreya nibyo masoko atatu manini ya lithium yo mu nyanja.Igiciro cya lithium muri ibyo bihugu gifatwa nkigipimo cyinganda za litiro ya batiri.
Dukurikije amakuru y’amateka, ibiciro bya lithium byagabanutse hagati ya 2018 kugeza 2020 kubera ikibazo cy’ibicuruzwa bitangwa n’amabuye y'agaciro nka Pilbara Minerals na Altura Mining, kongera umusaruro.
Igiciro cya hydroxide ya lithium cyamanutse kigera ku madolari 9 ku kilo ku ya 30 Ukuboza 2020, kiva kuri $ 20.5 / kg ku ya 4 Mutarama 2018. Carbone ya Litiyumu yagurishijwe $ 6.75 / kg ku ya 30 Ukuboza 2020, ikamanuka ikava ku $ 19.25 ku ya 4 Mutarama 2018.
Ibiciro byatangiye kuzamuka mu ntangiriro za 2021 kubera ubwiyongere bukabije bwa EV mu gihe ubukungu bw’isi bwongeye kugaruka ku ngaruka z’icyorezo cya Covid-19.Igiciro cya karubone ya lithium yazamutse inshuro icyenda kugeza ubu kuva $ 6.75 / kg mu ntangiriro za Mutarama 2021, mu gihe hydroxide ya lithium yiyongereyeho inshuro zirenga zirindwi kuva $ 9.
MuriIsi Yose 2022cyasohotse muri Gicurasi, Ikigo mpuzamahanga gishinzwe ingufu (IEA)
raporo yagurishijwe ya EV yikubye kabiri muri 2021 kuva umwaka ushize igera ku gitabo gishya cya 6.6m.Umubare w'imodoka z'amashanyarazi kumuhanda kwisi wageze kuri 16.5m, wikubye inshuro eshatu umubare wa 2018.
Mu gihembwe cya mbere cy'uyu mwaka, miliyoni 2 za EV zagurishijwe, ziyongereyeho 75% umwaka ushize (YOY).
Icyakora, ibiciro bya lisiyumu ya karubone ku isoko rya Aziya-Pasifika byagabanutse mu gihembwe cya kabiri kuko icyorezo gishya cya Covid-19 mu Bushinwa, cyatumye guverinoma ishyiraho ibihano, byagize ingaruka ku isoko ry’ibikoresho fatizo.
Nk’uko byatangajwe n’isoko ry’imiti n’ubushakashatsi bw’ibiciro, Chemanalyst, igiciro cya karubone ya lithium cyapimwe $ 72.155 / toni cyangwa $ 72.15 / kg mu gihembwe cya kabiri cyarangiye muri Kamena 2022, kiva kuri $ 74.750 / toni mu gihembwe cya mbere cyarangiye muri Werurwe.
Ikigo cyanditse ngo:
Ibikoresho byinshi byamashanyarazi byagabanije umusaruro wabyo, kandi imbuga nyinshi zahagaritse umusaruro wazo kubera ibikoresho bidahagije byimodoka.
Ati: “Iterambere muri rusange ryatewe na COVID, hamwe n'ubushakashatsi bwakozwe n'abayobozi b'Abashinwa ku bijyanye n'izamuka ry’ibiciro bya Litiyumu, bivuguruza impinduka zirambye zigana ku bukungu bushingiye ku bidukikije.”
Chemanalyst yavuze ko igiciro cya hydroxide ya lithium muri Aziya-Pasifika, cyazamutseho $ 73.190 / toni mu gihembwe cya kabiri, kiva kuri $ 68.900 / toni mu gihembwe cya mbere.
Isoko-isaba icyerekezo cyerekana isoko rikomeye
Muri Werurwe, guverinoma ya Ositaraliya yavuze ko icyifuzo cya lithiyumu ku isi gishobora kwiyongera kugera kuri toni 636.000 za litiro ya karubone ihwanye na (LCE) mu 2022, kiva kuri toni 526.000 mu 2021. Biteganijwe ko icyifuzo kizagera kuri toni zirenga ebyiri kugeza kuri miliyoni 1.5 mu 2027 mu gihe isi yose yakirwa na EV. ikomeje kuzamuka.
Yagereranije umusaruro wa lithium ku isi uziyongera hejuru y’ibisabwa kugeza kuri toni 650.000 LCE mu 2022 na toni miliyoni 1.47 muri 2027.
Ubwiyongere bwibisohoka bya lithium, ariko, ntibishobora guhura nibisabwa nabakora bateri.
Isosiyete ikora ubushakashatsi Wood Mackenzie yahanuye muri Werurwe ko ingufu za batiri ya lithium-ion ku isi ishobora kuzamuka inshuro eshanu zikagera kuri 5.500 gigawatt-isaha (GWh) mu 2030 guhera mu 2021 kugira ngo isubize gahunda nini yo kwagura.
Jiayue ZhengAbasesenguzi ba Wood Mackenzie, bagize bati:
“Isoko ry'amashanyarazi (EV) rifite hafi 80% bya batiri ya litiro-ion.”
Ati: "Ibiciro bya peteroli biri hejuru bifasha amasoko menshi gushyiraho politiki yo gutwara abantu zeru zeru, bigatuma hakenerwa bateri ya lithium-ion kuzamuka kandi ikarenga GWh 3.000 muri 2030."
Ati: “Isoko rya batiri ya lithium-ion rimaze guhura n’ibura ry’umwaka ushize kubera iterambere ry’isoko rya EV ndetse no kuzamuka kw'ibiciro fatizo.Dukurikije uko ibintu bimeze, turateganya ko itangwa rya batiri ritazuzura ibisabwa kugeza mu 2023. ”
Ati: “Isoko rya batiri ya lithium-ion rimaze guhura n’ibura ry’umwaka ushize kubera iterambere ry’isoko rya EV ndetse no kuzamuka kw'ibiciro fatizo.Dukurikije uko ibintu bimeze, turateganya ko itangwa rya batiri ritazuzura ibisabwa kugeza mu 2023. ”
Ikigo cyanditse mu bushakashatsi cyagize kiti: "Twizera ko kwibanda kuri lithium ahanini biterwa n’urwego rwacukuwe na lithium rutaratera imbere ugereranije na nikel".
Ati: "Turagereranya ko EV zizaba zishinzwe kurenga 80.0% by'ibikenerwa na litiro ku isi mu 2030 ugereranije na 19.3% gusa byo gutanga nikel ku isi mu 2030."
Ibiciro bya Litiyumu: Abasesenguzi
Fitch Solutions mu giciro cyayo cya lithium yo mu 2022 igereranya igiciro cya batiri yo mu bwoko bwa litiro karubone mu Bushinwa igera ku madolari 21.000 kuri toni uyu mwaka, ikoroha kugera ku $ 19,000 kuri toni muri 2023.
Nicholas Trickett, uwasesenguye ibyuma n'ubucukuzi bw'amabuye y'agaciro muri Fitch Solutions yandikiye Capital.com, yagize ati:
Ati: "Turacyateganya ko ibiciro byoroha ugereranije n’umwaka utaha mu gihe ibirombe bishya bitangiye kubyazwa umusaruro mu 2022 na 2023, ibiciro bihanitse bikuraho bimwe mu bisabwa kuko abaguzi bahabwa igiciro cyo kugura ibinyabiziga by’amashanyarazi (umushoferi wambere w’iterambere ry’ibikenewe), hamwe n’abaguzi benshi funga amasezerano y'igihe kirekire yo gucukura n'abacukuzi. ”
Trickett yavuze ko iki kigo cyari mu rwego rwo kuvugurura ibiciro bya lithium ukurikije ibiciro biri hejuru ndetse n’impinduka mu rwego rw’ubukungu.
Tritchett yavuze ko Fitch Solutions iteganya ko litiro ya karubone ya lithium ku isi iziyongera kuri 219kilotonnes (kt) hagati ya 2022 na 2023 ndetse n’iyongera rya 194.4 kt hagati ya 2023 na 2024.
Mu iteganyagihe rya lithium yo mu 2022 itangwa n’ubucuruzi bw’ubukungu Trading Economics iteganya ko karubone ya lithium mu Bushinwa igurishwa kuri CNY482.204.55 / toni mu mpera za Q3 2022 na CNY502.888.80 mu mezi 12.
Kubera guhindagurika no kudashidikanya kubitangwa nibisabwa, abasesenguzi barashobora gutanga gusa igihe gito.Ntabwo batanze igiciro cya lithium yo muri 2025 cyangwa igipimo cya lithium yo muri 2030.
Iyo urebalithiumguhanura ibiciro, uzirikane ko abasesenguzi bashobora kuba kandi baribeshye.Niba ushaka gushora muri lithium, ugomba kubanza gukora ubushakashatsi bwawe.
Icyemezo cyawe cyishoramari kigomba gushingira kumyumvire yawe kubibazo, ubuhanga bwawe muri iri soko, ikwirakwizwa rya portfolio yawe nuburyo wumva neza gutakaza amafaranga.Kandi ntuzigere ushora imari kurenza uko ushobora guhomba.
Igihe cyo kohereza: Nzeri-17-2022